MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-08-16. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
First Round Bye Wild Card Round
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card Wild Card Wild Card
NLLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsSt. Louis CardinalsAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padres
ALHouston AstrosNew York YankeesChicago White SoxSeattle MarinersTampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1New York MetsNLE1.0-0.3754226.418.6101.460.6107-5596-66>99.9%29.3%70.7%86.6%44.6%21.8%9.2%0.0%0.0%+0.4%
2Atlanta BravesNLE1.2-0.1724626.218.898.264.8104-5993-70>99.9%71.2%28.8%65.1%35.8%19.1%9.4%+0.2%+0.7%+3.3%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.9-0.2655126.519.591.570.597-6586-7695.1%94.6%0.5%47.1%18.5%9.4%4.0%+1.3%+3.3%+21.2%
4Miami MarlinsNLE-0.50.4526519.725.371.790.377-8567-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-1.6%
5Washington NationalsNLE-1.50.3397917.027.056.0106.061-10151-111<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.5-0.5645126.720.390.771.396-6685-7790.8%10.9%79.9%49.2%19.8%6.3%2.8%-0.1%+2.1%+8.3%
2Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.10.0625324.122.986.175.992-7081-8146.2%26.1%20.1%20.3%6.9%2.0%0.9%+6.2%-1.8%+5.7%
3Chicago CubsNLC-0.8-0.1486721.325.769.392.775-8764-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.8-0.4457022.624.467.694.473-8962-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.40.3457117.828.262.899.268-9458-104<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW1.8-0.1803529.517.5109.552.5114-48104-58>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%61.3%37.3%21.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.30.1655422.021.087.075.092-7082-8060.8%60.8%<0.1%28.4%12.0%3.7%1.2%-7.3%-6.7%+8.2%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.1595722.123.981.180.987-7575-877.0%7.0%<0.1%3.3%1.1%0.4%<0.1%-0.4%+2.4%-45.1%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.20.4536321.025.074.088.080-8268-940.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.1%0.0%0.0%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.90.3516718.926.169.993.176-8764-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE1.80.0724527.917.199.962.1105-5795-67>99.9%0.6%99.4%99.9%70.0%41.5%24.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Tampa Bay RaysALE0.30.4625323.523.585.576.591-7180-8258.5%58.4%0.1%29.3%10.5%4.3%1.4%+7.3%+12.7%-20.9%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.50.3615424.122.985.176.991-7180-8252.2%52.0%0.2%27.0%10.0%4.1%1.7%-10.1%-27.6%-12.7%
4Baltimore OriolesALE0.40.2615523.622.484.677.490-7279-8346.8%46.5%0.3%24.0%6.7%2.6%1.1%+2.4%-3.2%+35.0%
5Boston Red SoxALE-0.10.3585921.423.679.482.685-7774-886.6%6.6%<0.1%3.0%0.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%+3.7%-24.3%
AL Central
1Cleveland GuardiansALC0.0-0.1625522.722.384.777.390-7279-8352.3%16.0%36.3%24.3%6.7%1.9%0.5%-8.2%+3.9%+19.0%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.0-0.3615623.721.384.777.390-7279-8354.3%14.0%40.3%27.6%8.2%2.4%0.9%+5.8%+18.2%+13.0%
3Minnesota TwinsALC0.10.0605523.823.283.878.289-7378-8439.9%16.5%23.4%19.3%6.4%1.9%0.8%+2.2%-11.9%-13.8%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-1.0-0.2487019.724.367.794.373-8962-100<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.3-0.1457417.425.662.499.668-9457-105<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Houston AstrosALW1.30.0754326.317.7101.360.7107-5596-66>99.9%0.2%99.8%>99.9%65.2%34.5%17.6%0.0%0.0%+0.2%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.3-0.6645424.919.188.973.194-6884-7889.3%89.1%0.2%45.6%15.8%6.4%2.2%+1.1%+4.7%+7.9%
3Texas RangersALW0.00.1526423.023.075.087.080-8269-930.1%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.5%-0.4%-2.7%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.40.0516621.024.072.090.078-8466-96<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.7%
5Oakland AthleticsALW-1.30.3427517.327.759.3102.765-9754-108<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%