MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-08-16. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | San Diego Padres | ||
| AL | Houston Astros | New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Mets | NL | E | 1.0 | -0.3 | 75 | 42 | 26.4 | 18.6 | 101.4 | 60.6 | 107-55 | 96-66 | >99.9% | 29.3% | 70.7% | 86.6% | 44.6% | 21.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.4% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.2 | -0.1 | 72 | 46 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 98.2 | 64.8 | 104-59 | 93-70 | >99.9% | 71.2% | 28.8% | 65.1% | 35.8% | 19.1% | 9.4% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +3.3% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.9 | -0.2 | 65 | 51 | 26.5 | 19.5 | 91.5 | 70.5 | 97-65 | 86-76 | 95.1% | 94.6% | 0.5% | 47.1% | 18.5% | 9.4% | 4.0% | +1.3% | +3.3% | +21.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.5 | 0.4 | 52 | 65 | 19.7 | 25.3 | 71.7 | 90.3 | 77-85 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.5 | 0.3 | 39 | 79 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 56.0 | 106.0 | 61-101 | 51-111 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.5 | -0.5 | 64 | 51 | 26.7 | 20.3 | 90.7 | 71.3 | 96-66 | 85-77 | 90.8% | 10.9% | 79.9% | 49.2% | 19.8% | 6.3% | 2.8% | -0.1% | +2.1% | +8.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 62 | 53 | 24.1 | 22.9 | 86.1 | 75.9 | 92-70 | 81-81 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 20.1% | 20.3% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | +6.2% | -1.8% | +5.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -0.8 | -0.1 | 48 | 67 | 21.3 | 25.7 | 69.3 | 92.7 | 75-87 | 64-98 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.8 | -0.4 | 45 | 70 | 22.6 | 24.4 | 67.6 | 94.4 | 73-89 | 62-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -1.4 | 0.3 | 45 | 71 | 17.8 | 28.2 | 62.8 | 99.2 | 68-94 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.8 | -0.1 | 80 | 35 | 29.5 | 17.5 | 109.5 | 52.5 | 114-48 | 104-58 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 61.3% | 37.3% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.3 | 0.1 | 65 | 54 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 87.0 | 75.0 | 92-70 | 82-80 | 60.8% | 60.8% | <0.1% | 28.4% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | -7.3% | -6.7% | +8.2% | ||||||
| 3 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.2 | 0.1 | 59 | 57 | 22.1 | 23.9 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 87-75 | 75-87 | 7.0% | 7.0% | <0.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | -0.4% | +2.4% | -45.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.2 | 0.4 | 53 | 63 | 21.0 | 25.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 | 80-82 | 68-94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.9 | 0.3 | 51 | 67 | 18.9 | 26.1 | 69.9 | 93.1 | 76-87 | 64-99 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.8 | 0.0 | 72 | 45 | 27.9 | 17.1 | 99.9 | 62.1 | 105-57 | 95-67 | >99.9% | 0.6% | 99.4% | 99.9% | 70.0% | 41.5% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.4 | 62 | 53 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 91-71 | 80-82 | 58.5% | 58.4% | 0.1% | 29.3% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% | +7.3% | +12.7% | -20.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.5 | 0.3 | 61 | 54 | 24.1 | 22.9 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 91-71 | 80-82 | 52.2% | 52.0% | 0.2% | 27.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | -10.1% | -27.6% | -12.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.4 | 0.2 | 61 | 55 | 23.6 | 22.4 | 84.6 | 77.4 | 90-72 | 79-83 | 46.8% | 46.5% | 0.3% | 24.0% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | +2.4% | -3.2% | +35.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.3 | 58 | 59 | 21.4 | 23.6 | 79.4 | 82.6 | 85-77 | 74-88 | 6.6% | 6.6% | <0.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | +3.7% | -24.3% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.0 | -0.1 | 62 | 55 | 22.7 | 22.3 | 84.7 | 77.3 | 90-72 | 79-83 | 52.3% | 16.0% | 36.3% | 24.3% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | -8.2% | +3.9% | +19.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 0.0 | -0.3 | 61 | 56 | 23.7 | 21.3 | 84.7 | 77.3 | 90-72 | 79-83 | 54.3% | 14.0% | 40.3% | 27.6% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | +5.8% | +18.2% | +13.0% | ||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 60 | 55 | 23.8 | 23.2 | 83.8 | 78.2 | 89-73 | 78-84 | 39.9% | 16.5% | 23.4% | 19.3% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | +2.2% | -11.9% | -13.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -1.0 | -0.2 | 48 | 70 | 19.7 | 24.3 | 67.7 | 94.3 | 73-89 | 62-100 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -1.3 | -0.1 | 45 | 74 | 17.4 | 25.6 | 62.4 | 99.6 | 68-94 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 1.3 | 0.0 | 75 | 43 | 26.3 | 17.7 | 101.3 | 60.7 | 107-55 | 96-66 | >99.9% | 0.2% | 99.8% | >99.9% | 65.2% | 34.5% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | ||||||
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.3 | -0.6 | 64 | 54 | 24.9 | 19.1 | 88.9 | 73.1 | 94-68 | 84-78 | 89.3% | 89.1% | 0.2% | 45.6% | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | +1.1% | +4.7% | +7.9% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.0 | 0.1 | 52 | 64 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 80-82 | 69-93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.7% | ||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.4 | 0.0 | 51 | 66 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 78-84 | 66-96 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.3 | 0.3 | 42 | 75 | 17.3 | 27.7 | 59.3 | 102.7 | 65-97 | 54-108 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
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